Friday, January 22, 2016

Conference Championship Sunday - 2016

Good evening everyone.  I had my crack staff submit their picks to me by noon today Vegas time, but then when my plans fell through for tonight, I remembered that these games aren't being played til Sunday, so I took a nap.  :)  To start off, I need to tell Joey to sit down right now.  Joey, please sit down...  :)  Joey has been joining me for quite some time now in volunteering his picks for my blogs.  All of these football picks used to be published in my original blog here, and that link will bring you to the place where you can learn the most about my personal life, if you're so inclined.  Anyway, my brother Pete joined us in picking games this season.  Pete coming on board was fitting since he got a job at a sportsbook (three books to be exact).  Joey has been working at the Palace Station book in Vegas for quite some time.  Pete works at Bally's, Paris, and Planet Hollywood.  Joey, are you sitting down?  Joey has yet to meet one of our blog's readers, but today my brother met fellow poker blogger Nick at Bally's.  Sorry Joey.  Nick also goes by "Cokeboy" (he used to work for Coca-Cola, before you make any jokes), and the link to his blog can be found to the right.  Nick is out in Vegas right now playing a little poker and making sports bets, among other things.  I think that Nick likes the poker room at the Mirage - this started as two 100-dollar stacks of red last night...

Evidently Nick plays pocket kings better than my friend Rob, who also writes a little poker blog whose link you can find in the little list to the right...  :)  Back to football, I'm sorry about that Joey.  Joey has been inviting readers to stop by Palace Station for quite some time.  To add insult to injury, for the first time in the history of making these predictions, I picked the exact score in the Patriots 27-20 win over the Chiefs last weekend.  If only there was something to console my friend Joey, like the fact that he's still our overall leader, or that he made a stack of money on Alabama/Clemson, OR that his Broncos knocked my Steelers out of the playoffs...  With all that being said, it's time to make some picks.  Live from the Palace Station Sportsbook, here's Joey...

Joey's Parlay Card (Last Week 4-3-1/Overall 38-36-2)

Broncos 23  Patriots 20 - Broncos (+3) - Under 44.5
Panthers 38  Cardinals 30 - Panthers (-3) - Over 47.5

Down to the final four.  Both lines hit (-3.5) in recent days, but have leveled off at (-3).

Broncos (+3) - Peyton is definitely in his final season and the Patriots seem to stand in his way, but Manning is 2-1 against Brady in AFC title games.  The Denver defense is #1 in the AFC against the run and pass.  The Pats have no running game at this point, so if Denver can make Brady uncomfortable, then Denver wins and moves on.

Panthers (-3) - I have been on the fence all week with this game.  Both teams have Top 5 defenses and offenses.  Neither team has a lot of experience in big games, so the only defining factor is Carolina being at home.  The turf wasn't good last week, so I'm guessing the NFL will step in and make things right, which means TRACK MEET.

That's it from the Palace Station Race and Sportsbook until Super Bowl 50.  May all your tickets cash!

And right here I need to thank Joey and Pete once again for submitting their picks here each week.  The football season lasts for a while, and it does become a responsibility, especially the last few weeks when we had so many games to call.  I pick on Pete here a little for not giving commentary with his picks.  When Nick informed me that he'd met Pete today, Nick said, "Just met your brother... good guy!"  I bet that was in part because he was surprised that Pete speaks...  :)  Now coming to you live from Bally's evidently, here's Pete...

Pete's Parlay Card (Last Week 2-5-1/Overall 34-40-2)

Patriots 28  Broncos 17 - Patriots (-3) - Over 44.5
Panthers 35  Cardinals 24 - Panthers (-3) - Over 47.5

And now it's my turn.  As always, our panel has some disagreement on our bets.  Live from the White Mountains of New Hampshire, here are my takes...

Coach's Parlay Card (Last Week 3-4-1/Overall 35-40-1)

Patriots 28  Broncos 13 - Patriots (-3) - Under 44.5 - Broncos struggled against a Steelers team with no Antonio Brown and a depleted running corps.  Manning doesn't fare well in the elements.  Patriots go back to the Super Bowl...

Panthers 23  Cardinals 17 - Panthers (-3) - Under 47.5 - In fair weather I was picking the Cards, but Carolina will be cold and snowy.  History has not been kind to warm weather teams in the cold.  If throwing is difficult, Newton can run, Palmer cannot.  Panthers vs. Patriots in Super Bowl 50...

And that it folks.  As always, our picks are for entertainment purposes only.  Have a great football Sunday, and we'll see you next time with our Super Bowl bets!

Friday, January 15, 2016

Divisional Weekend - 2016

Good evening everyone.  Quite a weekend here last time around.  For starters, Pete went 8-2 on his bets last weekend, which is incredible, and this resulted in him passing me by a half bet for the season.  In addition, Pete and myself correctly called all four road teams winning straight up in the Wild Card round, which had never happened before in the NFL.  However, before you start crying any tears for Joey, I have it on good authority (messaging him during Monday night's Alabama/Clemson tilt) that he cleaned up on the title game.  Now as I have the Cavs/Rockets game starting in the background, I'll give you our bets for the NFL's Divisional Weekend games.  Once again, there is substantial disagreement among our experts here...  I won't even mention that Joey is a Broncos fan while I myself root for the Steelers as we delve into this week's bets...  ;)  Coming to you live from the Palace Station Sportsbook in Las Vegas, here's Joey...

Joey's Parlay Card (Last Weekend 4-6/Overall 34-33-1)

Patriots 23  Chiefs 20 - Chiefs (+5) - Over 42.5
Cardinals 35  Packers 14 - Cardinals (-7) - Under 49.5
Panthers 20  Seahawks 16 - Panthers (-2.5) - Under 44
Broncos 20  Steelers 7 - Broncos (-7) - Under 39.5

Round one goes to the visiting team.  Never before have all four visiting teams been victorious.  Against the spread the teams went 2-2.  It made for one wild weekend of football.  Hopefully this weekend is just as fun to watch.

Chiefs (+5) - The Chiefs can't even get any love from their peers.  Nobody believes that KC can win this game outright.  BUT Gronk is questionable, the Pats have no starting RB, and Edelman returns from an injury.  The upside for the Pats is that they have Tom Brady, but I still think that this game comes down to who has the ball last.

Cardinals (-7) - The Cards won this game 38-8 a couple of months ago.  The Packers D has not improved.  Maybe Rodgers gets one more score.

Panthers (-2.5) - Probably the best game of the weekend.  Two good teams with great D's.  The Panthers O is a little more focused while Seattle feels lucky to be in this game.  Their O has struggled without Beastmode and I think his teammates are questioning his heart.

Finally, the most questionable game of the weekend, mainly because the questions are who will play and how well.  There has been no line all week.  Denver lost to Pitt, but Osweiler was QB.  This time it's Peyton Manning back at the helm and he will make sure Denver moves on.

Good luck and may all your tickets cash!

Now to the guy who crushed it last week.  Live from the Bally's/Paris/Planet Hollywood portion of the Vegas Strip, here's Pete...

Pete's Parlay Card (Last Weekend 8-2/Overall 32-35-1)

Chiefs 27  Patriots 21 - Chiefs (+5) - Over 42.5
Cardinals 35  Packers 24 - Cardinals (-7) - Over 49.5
Seahawks 21  Panthers 17 - Seahawks (+2.5) - Under 44
Broncos 28  Steelers 10 - Broncos (-7) - Under 39.5

We'll definitely start calling Pete the "Silent Assassin" if he can match his results from last week.  Well, I was 5-3 last weekend heading into Monday night's NCAA title game, where things unraveled for me.  Here are my bets for what promises to be a very interesting Divisional Weekend...

Coach's Parlay Card (Last Weekend 5-5/Overall 32-36)

Patriots 27  Chiefs 20 - Patriots (-5) - Over 42.5  I'll believe that Brady loses this game and doesn't cover only when I see it...
Cardinals 27  Packers 23 - Packers (+7) - Over 49.5  Rodgers will sling it til the very end...
Seahawks 23  Panthers 20 - Seahawks (+2.5) - Under 44  I'll believe that Carolina wins only when I see it...
Broncos 27  Steelers 23 - Steelers (+7) - Over 39.5  The over in this game is my favorite bet of the weekend.  Peyton and Ben will throw some passes, and the Steelers look too dinged-up to win outright...

And that's it my friends.  Remember that our picks are for entertainment purposes only, and have a great football weekend!

Friday, January 8, 2016

Football Friday (Wild Card Weekend - 2016)

Good evening everyone.  Took a nap after work (shift ended at 10:00 last night, I was back at 9:30 this morning), but here we are.  I don't want to brag, but our fearless forecasters have gone 20-7 on our NFL bets over the last three weeks.  We're each giving you a total of ten bets this weekend because we're giving you our selections against the spread and on the totals of the four NFL Wild Card games and on Monday night's NCAA title game.  Our score predictions are an added bonus...  ;)  We actually all went 2-1 on our bets last week, but all of us matching records would be a nifty trick this time around, because we have some diverse opinions on this weekend's action.  Starting us off from the sportsbook at Palace Station in Las Vegas, here's Joey...

Joey's Parlay Card (Last Weekend 2-1/Overall 30-27-1)

Texans 23  Chiefs 20 - Texans (+3.5)/Over 40
Steelers 30  Bengals 20 - Steelers (-2.5)/Over 45.5
Vikings 24  Seahawks 20 - Vikings (+5)/Over 39.5
Redskins 38  Packers 17 - Redskins (-1)/Over 45
Clemson 45  Alabama 28 - Clemson (+7)/Over 50.5

Not a bad ending to the NFL season.  Now the fun stuff starts.  Several teams that were contenders early in the season may now be pretenders.  Wild Card Weekend is always wild.  I'll start with tomorrow's games and end with the national championship game on Monday.

Texans (+3.5) - The Chiefs have won 10 in a row after losing 5 straight.  They are not flashy but have gotten the job done.  However, J.J. Watt and the Texans defense have improved since Week 1.  It's gonna be a close game, but the Texans win on a last second field goal 23-20.

Steelers (-2.5) - I'm not a fan of road favorites in the postseason, but the Steelers are grateful to be there and the Bengals are on their backup quarterback.  Steelers win 30-20.

Vikings (+5.5) - Seattle is playing their best football and the home field is good for them, but this game is in cold Minnesota and the Vikings have a good defensive coach in Zimmer.  Vikings win 24-20.

Redskins (-1) - The Packers have lost 7 of the last 10 and are limping into the playoffs.  They will be kicked out in round one.  Redskins win 38-17.

Finally, the National Championship Game.  I'm gonna wait til gametime to bet since I think the general public will bet this game to 7.5 or 8, and I normally bet against the public, plus Clemson is rated #1 and is undefeated.  Plus, the two teams that gave Alabama the most trouble (Ole Miss and Tennessee) spread the defense out and can run, just like Clemson.  I'll take the Tigers to win the National Title by a final of 45-28.

I think Joey is crazy, but we'll get to my picks later...  ;)  Joey is our leader and did have these picks to me by Tuesday, so I'll be nice...  :)  My brother has made a nice late-season run, and now Pete is nipping at our heels.  Live from the Las Vegas Strip, somewhere in the Bally's/Paris/Planet Hollywood triangle, here's Pete...

Pete's Parlay Card (Last Weekend 2-1/Overall 24-33-1)

Chiefs 21  Texans 17 - Chiefs (-3.5)/Under 40
Steelers 24  Bengals 21 - Steelers (-2.5)/Under 45.5
Seahawks 17  Vikings 14 - Vikings (+5)/Under 39.5
Packers 21  Redskins 17 - Packers (+1)/Under 45
Alabama 31  Clemson 27 - Clemson (+7)/Over 50.5

My brother and I agree on all the winners, but we differ on some lines and totals, so he's just a little crazy.  In the NFL, I would not normally pick all four road teams to's win straight up, but then I also consider quarterback matchups...  Live from the White Mountains of New Hampshire, it's my turn...

Coach's Parlay Card (Last Weekend 2-1/Overall 27-31)

Chiefs 23  Texans 16 - Chiefs (-3.5)/Under 40 - Smith vs. the Texans latest QB.  Chiefs are hot and have a better record, enough to squeak by at crazy Reliant...
Steelers 27  Bengals 23 - Steelers (-2.5)/Over 45.5 - Roethlisberger vs. McCarron.  Highest-scoring NFL playoff game of weekend, and Ben's experience advances Steelers...
Seahawks 28  Vikings 10 - Seahawks (-5)/Under 39.5 - Wilson vs. Bridgewater.  Seahawks crushed Vikes in recent meeting, and they've been there before...
Packers 28  Redskins 20 - Packers (+1)/Over 45 - Rodgers vs. Cousins.  Packers have better record and played tougher schedule...
Alabama 34  Clemson 13 - Alabama (-7)/Under 50.5 - Tigers did not face a defense like Bama's and their D looked like swiss cheese against North Carolina in ACC title tilt.  Can't see Henry being slowed by Tigers...

And there you go.  Somehow we're already in the second week of 2016, and we're eagerly awaiting the NFL Playoffs and NCAA title game.  As always, remember that our picks are for entertainment purposes only.  Have a great football weekend and we'll see you next week!

Saturday, January 2, 2016

Football Friday (2015 - Week 18)

Good evening everyone.  Thanks for your patience with me today.  My work schedule delayed this post just a bit, but still plenty of time for y'all to mull our bets over before tomorrow's games.  Thanks also for stopping by to see our picks.  I told Joey a while back that I thought this blog would have 3,000 views by the Super Bowl, but now I'm betting that the number will be closer to 3,500 at that point.  I also have to thank Joey and Pete for contributing their selections to my little blog.  With the New Year's Eve (NYE) NCAA playoff games, we're actually giving you picks twice this week.  Barring our NFL bets for tomorrow, we'll be giving you score predictions for every NFL playoff game and the NCAA title game.  I'll extrapolate our bets against the spread and on the total from those scores.  If you want to give me your good karma tonight, I want Oregon and TCU to score all night long, and I want Arizona State to win by at least four (alternate spread) over West Virginia.  It's a home bowl game for the Sun Devils...  Joey let my brother and myself get one bet closer to him after the NYE playoff games, but he's still our overall leader.  Live from the Palace Station Sportsbook in Las Vegas, here's Joey...

Joey's Parlay Card (NYE Bets 1-3/Overall 28-26-1)

Bills (+3) vs. Jets
Giants (-3.5) vs. Eagles
Vikings (+3) @ Packers

For those of you that had to work yesterday, I'm sorry.  I was sitting in my Barca Lounger watching college football.  This week is harder than preseason.  Most games don't mean anything.

Bills (+3) - Rex Ryan would like nothing more than to beat his old club and knock them out of the playoffs.
Vikings (+3) - The Packers want to avenge the last loss to the Vikings, but right now they just don't have the horses on offense or defense to win this game.
Giants (-3.5) - This game means nothing since Coughlin will be fired after, but the Eagles are in more disarray.  I would normally take the dog in a game like this, but I don't think the Eagles have a remote chance to win.

That's all from Palace.  Happy New Year and may all your parlay cards cash.

Pete and Joey agree on one of their bets this week, and in case you're worried about the quiet one, Pete has been cashing in on the SEC during the bowl season, thank you very much...  Live from the Las Vegas Strip, somewhere in the vicinity of the Bally's, Paris, and Planet Hollywood Sportsbooks, here's Pete...

Pete's Parlay Card (NYE Bets 2-2/Overall 22-32-1)

Panthers (-10.5) vs. Buccaneers)
Giants (-3.5) vs. Eagles
Redskins (+4) @ Cowboys

Pete is 3 wins behind me, and I'm 3 behind Joey.  Ought to be fun down the stretch.  I have no idea who is going to win this weekend, so I took all totals.  Live from the White Mountains of New Hampshire, here I am...

Coach's Parlay Card (NYE Bets 2-2/Overall 25-30)

Jets/Bills (Over 41) - Game has 23-20 written all over it...
Chargers/Broncos (Over 41.5) - I have faith these rivals will score 42...
Seahawks/Cardinals (Under 47) - Two pretty salty defenses here...

And that's all for tonight folks.  Remember that our picks are for entertainment purposes only.  Have a great football weekend and an Outstanding 2016!!!